If you’re worried about a coming recession, you’re not alone. Over the past couple of years, there’s been a lot of recession talk. And many people worry, if we do have one, it would cause the unemployment rate to skyrocket. Some even fear that a spike in unemployment would lead to a rash of foreclosures similar to what happened 15 years ago.

However, the latest Economic Forecasting Survey from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reveals that, for the first time in over a year, less than half (48%) of economists believe a recession will actually occur within the next year:

“Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy . . . economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. That is the first time they have put the probability below 50% since the middle of last year.”

If over half of the experts no longer expect a recession within the next year, you might naturally think those same experts also don’t expect the unemployment rate to jump way up – and you’d be right. The graph below uses data from that same WSJ survey to show exactly what the economists project for the unemployment rate over the next three years (see graph below):

If those expert projections are correct, more people will lose their jobs in the upcoming year. And job losses of any kind are devastating for those people and their loved ones.

However, the question here is: will there be enough job losses to cause a wave of foreclosures that will crash the housing market? Based on historical context from Macrotrends and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the answer is no. That’s because the unemployment rate is currently near all-time lows (see graph below):

As the orange bar in the graph shows, the average unemployment rate dating back to 1948 is 5.7%. The red bar shows, the last time the housing market crashed, in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the average unemployment rate was up to 8.3%. Both of those bars are much higher than the unemployment rate today (shown in the blue bar).

Moving forward, projections show the unemployment rate is likely to stay beneath the 75-year average. And that means we won’t see a wave of foreclosures that would severely impact the housing market.

Bottom Line

Most economists no longer expect a recession to occur in the next 12 months. That’s why they also don’t expect a dramatic rise in the unemployment rate that would lead to a rash of foreclosures and another housing market crash. If you have questions about unemployment and its impact on the housing market, connect with a real estate professional.

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If you’re thinking about buying or selling a house, it’s important to know that it doesn’t just affect your life, but also your community.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) releases a report every year to show how much economic activity is generated by home sales. The chart below illustrates that impact:

As the visual shows, when a house is sold, it can make a big difference in the local economy. The impact comes largely from the workers required to build, update, and buy and sell homes. Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), explains how the housing industry adds jobs to a community:

“The economic impact means housing is a significant job creator. In fact, for every single-family home built, enough economic activity is generated to sustain three full-time jobs for a year, per NAHB research. . . . And one job for every $100,000 in remodeling spending.” 

Housing being a major job creator makes sense when you consider there are many different industries involved in the process. A recent article from Fortune notes housing activity could have a more robust impact than you think due to the many ways it’s tied to the economy:

“Housing has three direct linkages to economic activity (GDP): the construction of new homes, the remodeling of existing homes, and that of housing transactions. . . . consider the activity associated with home sales – think broker fees, lawyers, etc. – which are a sizable contributor to housing’s GDP footprint.” 

When you buy or sell a home, you work with a team of professionals, including contractors, specialists, lawyers, and city officials. Each person plays a role in making the transaction happen. 

So, when you make a move in the housing market, you’re not just meeting your own needs, you’re also making a positive impact on the community. Knowing this can give you a sense of empowerment as you make your decision this year.

Bottom Line

Each and every home sale is important for the local economy. If you’re ready to move, reach out to a trusted real estate agent. It won’t just change your life – it’ll also have a strong positive effect on the whole community.

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